Bitcoin holds above $70,000 as Iran ceasefire hopes meet Fed-cut disappointment and options near expiry

Bitcoin and the broader crypto market are holding steady as oil and yields ease and ceasefire talks between the U.S. and Iran could start as early as Thursday. However, nothing is confirmed, and traders are cautious about positioning for a full return to normal. ING said energy prices and the dollar may not soften much this week, limiting bullish follow-through. On the geopolitical side, Iran remains skeptical. Axios reports U.S. military movements have deepened suspicions that a Trump peace proposal could be a ruse. Macro risk also worsened for crypto: the U.S. money-market curve has priced out any Fed easing this year. Earlier expectations of at least two 25 bps cuts—seen as a key catalyst for BTC and risk assets—are now gone. Crypto-specific headwinds appeared as well. Circle stock slid after a leaked Clarity Act draft suggested limits on paying interest on idle stablecoin balances. Arkham Intelligence said Bhutan may be selling about $30 million worth of BTC, while still holding 4,453 BTC worth roughly $315.9 million. Despite this, Bitcoin remains above $70,000 and dips are short-lived—often a sign of underlying strength. Market focus turns to Friday’s options expiry, with the article highlighting a potential bounce toward $75,000 if positioning triggers a squeeze higher. Key spot reference: BTC was around $71,509 (+2.21% from Tuesday 4 p.m. ET; +0.68% over 24h).