Bitcoin active addresses fall to 12-month low, raising blockspace and miner revenue concerns
Bitcoin’s 7-day moving average of active addresses has declined to about 660,000, the lowest level since December 2024, as reported by The Block. Year-end seasonal slowdown and broader weakness across multiple on-chain metrics coincide with this drop. Miner daily revenue has fallen from roughly $50 million in Q3 to about $40 million, with most income now coming from block subsidies rather than transaction fees. Transactions related to Ordinals and Runes account for a larger share of throughput but contribute only an estimated 5–10% of fee revenue, revealing a mismatch between transaction volume and the economic value of blockspace. The data point to limited current demand for Bitcoin blockspace, which pressures miner economics and raises questions about network utility beyond inscription-driven speculative activity. Traders should monitor whether the decline is temporary or persistent by tracking ETF inflows, exchange flows, hash rate, on-chain metrics (active addresses, fees, transaction counts), and the migration of activity to Layer-2s like the Lightning Network. Near-term implications include reduced fee-driven miner revenue and potential lower retail on-chain engagement; catalysts that could reverse the trend include renewed DeFi or inscription demand, protocol developments, macro shifts, or renewed speculative cycles. Actionable guidance for traders: avoid panic selling, watch trend duration and correlated indicators, follow miner economics and exchange flows for liquidity signals, and look for short-term catalysts that could restore on-chain usage and price momentum.
Bearish
The decline in Bitcoin active addresses to a 12-month low, combined with falling miner fee revenue and a reliance on block subsidies, points to weaker on-chain demand for BTC blockspace. Ordinals/Runes have increased throughput but contribute little fee revenue, underscoring that higher transaction counts are not translating into economic value for miners. For traders, this suggests reduced short-term buying pressure from retail on-chain activity and weaker fee-driven miner incentives, which can amplify selling pressure during negative macro or sentiment shocks. Short-term price impact is likely bearish as diminished on-chain engagement reduces liquidity-supported rallies. Over the medium to long term, the effect is neutral-to-bearish: accumulation by long-term holders, institutional flows (often off-chain), or renewed utility (DeFi, protocol upgrades, L2 adoption) could offset on-chain inactivity. Key indicators to watch are ETF inflows/outflows, exchange net flows, hash rate, fee revenue trends, and any resurgence in inscription or DeFi activity that materially increases blockspace economic demand.