95% of Bitcoin Addresses in Profit, $116k–119k Range Could Be Resistance
On August 7, Sentora (formerly IntoTheBlock) reported that Bitcoin’s implied volatility has held around 20% and is trending lower, indicating a prolonged consolidation without short-term compression. The analysis noted that Bitcoin’s correlation with traditional markets, especially the S&P 500, is rising, suggesting increased sensitivity to macroeconomic factors. On-chain data reveals about 95% of Bitcoin addresses are currently profitable, down from July’s record-high cost basis of $121,000. Many holders who purchased between $116,000 and $119,000 remain at a loss, marking this price band as a potential resistance zone for future upward moves.
Neutral
While 95% of Bitcoin addresses in profit indicates strong bullish fundamentals, the identification of the $116k–119k price band as a major resistance zone suggests potential selling pressure that could limit near-term upside. Additionally, the declining volatility and increased correlation with the S&P 500 underline a market in consolidation, sensitive to macroeconomic shifts rather than trending strongly. Historically, similar high-profitability metrics have preceded periods of range-bound trading, reinforcing the likelihood of continued sideways movement until a clear macro catalyst emerges. Thus, the outlook remains neutral.