Bitcoin Struggles as Adjusted Realized Price Holds at $72.5K
Bitcoin (BTC) is struggling to reclaim the $80,000 level after failing to break through a key “adjusted realized price” cost-basis resistance. Over the past two months, BTC peaked near ~$76,000, but the market couldn’t sustain a recovery.
On March 28, on-chain analyst Darkfost said the weakness is tied to the BTC Realized Price Excluding >7Y Supply—an adjusted realized price metric that filters out inactive/“diamond hands” older than seven years. Darkfost noted that BTC remains below this adjusted realized price, which currently sits around $72,500. Historically, similar conditions have preceded extended bearish phases, with Bitcoin often spending roughly 6–10 months below the investor cost basis.
At press time, BTC trades around $66,629–$66,771, up about ~1% on the day, while showing little net change over the past month. Market attention has increased due to higher volatility (per Ali Martinez). Meanwhile, CryptoQuant data shows Bitcoin open interest reached about $30B in mid-March (highest in 2026), with most activity on Binance; traders added an additional ~$829M open interest there.
Takeaway for traders: as long as the “Adjusted Realized Price” holds near $72.5K and BTC cannot flip it into support, rallies may face selling pressure and the market may remain choppy, with elevated leverage risk from rising open interest. A bullish reversal likely requires a macro/liquidity/demand improvement alongside a decisive reclaim of the adjusted realized price.
Bearish
The article’s core signal is that Bitcoin is still trapped below a key “Adjusted Realized Price” cost-basis level around $72.5K (BTC Realized Price Excluding >7Y Supply). When price stays under that adjusted investor cost basis, the historical tendency cited by Darkfost is prolonged bearish behavior, often lasting 6–10 months—this frames the current setup as more than a short-term dip.
For traders, the bearish tilt is reinforced by derivatives positioning: Bitcoin open interest is at a 2026 high and has increased significantly on Binance. That combination often amplifies liquidation cascades if price fails to reclaim resistance, making downside moves faster in the short term.
Short-term, expect choppy price action with rallies likely to meet selling near the adjusted realized price. Long-term, the bias remains bearish unless BTC can decisively flip the ~72.5K level into support along with improving macro liquidity/demand—otherwise the market can remain stuck in a “bear-market grind” pattern similar to prior cycles described in the piece.