Fidelity Report: Bitcoin’s Aged Supply Growth Outpaces New Issuance
Fidelity’s latest research highlights that for the first time since 2017, dormant Bitcoin coins—those not moved for over a year—have outpaced new issuance. The report shows that the aggregate supply of aged coins rose by 15% year-on-year, while fresh issuance from mining fell to multi-year lows. Fidelity attributes the surge in long-held coins to increased accumulation by institutional and retail investors, coupled with cautious miner behavior amid higher operational costs. The firm warns this trend could exacerbate supply shocks if holders start liquidating, but it also signals strengthened holder conviction, potentially reducing sell-side pressure. Key data points include a 20% drop in miner outflows and a record 2.5 million BTC aged beyond 12 months. Traders should watch on-chain metrics and miner activity for early signs of distribution shifts.
Bullish
The surge in dormant Bitcoin supply indicates strong conviction among holders and reduced selling pressure, a classic bullish signal. Historically, periods when aged coins accumulate—such as in 2016–17—preceded major price rallies as supply remained locked away. Lower miner outflows further tighten available liquidity. In the short term, traders may see reduced volatility as long-term holders hold steady; in the long term, constrained supply against steady demand sets the stage for upward price moves if catalysts emerge.