Bitcoin aNUPL flips back to red after May’s $90K push
CryptoQuant data shows Bitcoin’s adjusted Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (aNUPL) has flipped back to red. After a May recovery toward $90K, the “bullish reclaim” failed to hold and BTC slid back into the mid-$70Ks. The aNUPL green-to-red transition suggests holders who briefly returned to paper profits are getting pushed underwater again, often increasing selling pressure.
The article highlights a pattern from prior cycles. Similar aNUPL flips occurred in early 2023 and late 2023, where brief red dips preceded later recovery. But 2022 was different: aNUPL stayed deeper in losses, falling toward roughly -0.15 and eventually to around -0.35, with a prolonged capitulation period before a confident floor formed.
Two scenarios are now being weighed. A shallow red print that stays above -0.15 and resolves within weeks would resemble the 2023 “fakeout” setup. However, if aNUPL trends toward -0.15 to -0.35, it would point to 2022-style capitulation, implying accumulation may take longer.
Other network and positioning signals also lean cautious. Active addresses reportedly fell nearly 40% in a two-week window ending May 26 (about 821K to 494K), indicating weaker network participation alongside the price reversal. Derivatives data shows funding rates turning positive again, which—paired with weak spot demand—can reflect leverage optimism rather than durable accumulation.
Traders are watching the next sessions to see whether aNUPL can reclaim and hold above the zero threshold, or extend further lower.
Bearish
The article’s core signal is aNUPL flipping back to red after a failed attempt to sustain strength post-$90K. This resembles prior “green-to-red” stress events where traders who briefly regained unrealized profit get pushed underwater again. The historical comparison matters: the 2023 episodes ended with recovery, but the 2022 precedent involved deeper, longer-lasting losses (down toward roughly -0.15 to -0.35) and a slower path to a credible bottom.
Near-term impact: aNUPL returning to negative alongside falling active addresses increases the probability of continued volatility and sell pressure. Positive funding rates add risk of a leverage unwind if spot demand doesn’t catch up.
Long-term impact: if aNUPL only dips shallowly and quickly reclaims the zero line, the market could still transition to recovery (closer to the 2023 playbook). If it instead extends toward deeper negative ranges, traders should expect a longer capitulation-and-base-building phase (closer to 2022). Overall, the balance of on-chain participation deterioration and renewed aNUPL weakness tilts risk toward bearish continuation until the zero threshold is credibly reclaimed.