Bitcoin April Rally Powered by Perpetuals, CryptoQuant Turns Bearish
CryptoQuant says Bitcoin’s April rally looks “too speculative” because it was driven mainly by perpetual futures demand, not spot demand. Bitcoin rose about 20% (around $66,000 to near $79,000), while spot “visible demand” reportedly kept falling.
The report highlights a futures-vs-spot imbalance: perpetual funding/position demand increased as spot buying weakened. Historically, this divergence has preceded fragile, futures-led tops and can be followed by downside when leveraged positions unwind.
CryptoQuant also flags a bearish shift in its Bull/Bear Index, dropping from 50 to 40 during April. It argues a sustainable bull move likely requires spot demand to turn up along with new highs; otherwise, reclaiming the $79,000 area may face resistance.
As of press time, Bitcoin is reported above $80,000 (+2.5% in 24 hours), but the data points to higher correction risk, prompting traders to tighten risk management.
Bearish
CryptoQuant’s core thesis is that Bitcoin’s April strength was not supported by spot demand. The rally coincided with rising perpetual/funding-related positioning and shrinking spot “visible demand,” a combination that historically signals an unstable, futures-led top. The latest update reinforces this by noting Bitcoin is above $80,000 but the bearish shift in the CryptoQuant Bull/Bear Index (50→40) suggests underlying conditions remain fragile.
For traders, this increases the probability of short-term pullbacks (leveraged unwind risk) and raises the chance of a broader correction before any sustained trend reversal. A more bullish case would require spot demand to re-accelerate alongside further price strength; without that, attempts to reclaim the $79,000 area may fail.