Bitcoin Futures Power Rally, Spot Demand Stays Negative—Watch Unwind Risk
Bitcoin rose about 20% in April, moving from roughly $66,000 to near $79,000. But traders are being warned this advance may be speculative, driven by Bitcoin futures rather than sustained spot accumulation.
On-chain and positioning metrics cited by Julio Moreno show apparent spot demand stayed negative during April (around -87,600 BTC over 30 days). At the same time, perpetual futures demand increased, making leverage—especially through perpetual contracts—the main driver. This futures-versus-spot divergence is the key signal.
The Bull Score Index fell from 50 to 40, below the neutral 50 level, suggesting underlying on-chain strength weakened under the price rally. The report also flags a risk: rising futures open interest can amplify liquidation and unwind pressure. If spot buyers do not return, the leveraged unwind could cap upside near the April peak around $79,000.
A similar pattern was seen in early 2022, when futures-led strength later reversed after spot confirmation failed. With Bitcoin trading around ~$78,700 at the time of writing, the setup remains mixed: upside may stall unless spot demand turns positive and stabilises.
Neutral
This news is neutral-to-cautious for BTC. Price strength in April was real, but the underlying flow is inconsistent: spot demand stayed negative while Bitcoin futures/perpetual leverage increased. That divergence has historically preceded drawdowns when leveraged positioning unwinds without spot confirmation.
Short term, traders may face higher volatility because rising futures open interest can trigger liquidations and force deleveraging, potentially capping upside near the $79k area. Long term, the rally’s durability depends on spot demand turning positive and on-chain strength recovering; without that, the market remains vulnerable to another futures-led reversal.