CryptoQuant: BTC rally lacks spot demand as futures hit record
CryptoQuant warns that the BTC rally may be fragile and more speculative than sustainable. In April, BTC rose from about $66,000 to $79,000 (+~20%), but the weekly on-chain/futures data suggests the move lacked real spot support.
The key divergence: perpetual futures open-interest demand reached record highs, while “visible demand” from 30-day on-chain spot buying stayed negative for the entire month. CryptoQuant argues this spot vs futures imbalance increases the risk of pullbacks and liquidation.
Derivatives conditions also look stretched: funding rates were reported as negative (shorts paying). The Bull Score fell from 50 to 40, flipping back into bearish territory. Practically, traders may see selling pressure persist until BTC spot visible demand turns positive again.
Technical context in the article points to a mixed-to-bearish setup: BTC around $76.3k, RSI near 55–56 (neutral), sideways market structure, and a bearish Supertrend signal. Levels flagged include support near ~$75.7k (risk below), a potential downside test toward ~$71.95k if it breaks, and resistance near ~$77.54k and ~$79.42k.
Overall, the warning echoes a similar pattern seen around 2022, when derivatives/spot divergence preceded a prolonged ~70% drawdown.
(Keyword focus: BTC, spot demand.)
Bearish
CryptoQuant’s core message is bearish for BTC because the rally was supported by derivatives positioning rather than by sustained spot buying. Record perpetual futures open-interest contrasted with persistently negative 30-day on-chain spot visible demand, historically linked to fragile price action.
In the short term, negative funding (shorts paying), a declining Bull Score (50→40), and a bearish Supertrend signal all point to heightened downside pressure and liquidation susceptibility—especially if BTC support near ~$75.7k fails.
In the longer term, unless BTC spot visible demand turns positive, the market may struggle to convert speculative leverage into durable spot-driven demand. The 2022-style setup cited by CryptoQuant implies that prolonged drawdowns can follow this kind of spot–futures divergence.