Bitcoin price tests ascending-channel top, eyes $74K breakout
Bitcoin price is testing the upper trendline of a 4H ascending channel, trading around $72,330–$72,600 after rebounding from late-March lows near $65,000. A 4H close above $72,600 is the trigger that could open targets at $74,000, then $76,000. The 20-day SMA at about $72,056 is first support, followed by the 50-day SMA near $70,980. On the downside, a daily close below $70,000 would invalidate the channel structure.
Momentum signals remain mixed: the 4H MACD histogram is still negative (around -107.94), suggesting the move is recovering but not yet fully confirmed. The bullish “MA ribbon” is intact, with key SMAs stacked below price (SMA20 ~ $72,056; SMA50 ~ $70,980; SMA100 ~ $69,060; SMA200 ~ $69,877).
Institutional demand is a key backdrop. Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded about $786 million in net inflows last week, led by BlackRock’s IBIT at roughly $612 million. IBIT holdings are cited at 790,808 BTC (about $57.2B). Macro risks include Iran-related escalation and Friday’s CPI data (headline inflation at 3.3% in March). The next major catalyst is the FOMC meeting on April 29, with rate-cut odds rising after a ceasefire.
Traders should watch whether Bitcoin price can secure sustained 4H closes over $72,600 (bull case) or lose $70,000 on a daily basis (bear case).
Bullish
之所以将这条消息定为“偏多”，核心在于技术面与资金面同时指向上行延续：比特币价格正在4小时上升通道上轨附近做测试，且均线“多头排列”仍成立（SMA20/50/100/200均在现价下方并成支撑带）。同时，现货比特币ETF上周约7.86亿美元净流入、且由BlackRock的IBIT贡献大头，说明在当前价格区间存在持续的机构买盘托底，这通常会提高突破上轨后的“跟随性”。
短期上，市场的分歧点在于动能指标尚未完全确认：4小时MACD仍为负，意味着若无法放量站稳72,600美元，回踩72,056或70,980美元的概率会上升。交易策略上更像是“等突破确认”的结构：
- 若比特币价格能实现4小时有效收盘上穿72,600美元，通常与以往的区间突破行情类似，会更容易触发74,000→76,000美元的上行目标；
- 若日线收盘跌破70,000美元，则会触发通道失效，类似历史上在“假突破”后发生的趋势转弱。
长期上，文章强调的ETF资金流与即将到来的FOMC（降息预期上升）对风险资产的估值有支撑作用，若宏观不再恶化，通道上行有望向更高区间延展。但伊朗升级与通胀数据仍可能带来波动，因此需要关注事件风险对多头结构的破坏程度。