Morgan Stanley Flags Bitcoin Autumn as Fed Rate-Cut Split Grows
Morgan Stanley analysts say Bitcoin is entering a four-year “autumn” phase and advise taking profits before a potential “winter” downturn. Bitcoin has dipped below its 365-day moving average, signaling weaker momentum and stagnant liquidity from stablecoins and ETFs.
Federal Reserve officials are increasingly divided over a December rate cut amid tensions between cooling inflation and a softening labor market, adding uncertainty to the macro outlook.
Onchain data shows growing whale interest: a single whale now holds 385,713 ETH, while Paradigm recently staked 14.7 million HYPE tokens. Bitmine’s ETH holdings rose to 3.529 million ETH, valued at $12.84 billion.
Major projects are also advancing: Astar Network unveiled a Phase 2 roadmap capping ASTR supply at 10.5 billion and introducing a Burndrop scheme; Phantom Wallet confirmed no plans for its own chain or IPO; Sonic Labs will roll out a tiered fees model and open a New York office.
Macro moves include Visa’s USDC payment pilot for enterprises and JPMorgan’s launch of JPM Coin for instant payments. Crypto deal activity saw Coinbase cancel its $2 billion BVNK acquisition and Curvance complete a $4 million strategic funding round.
Bitcoin spot ETFs netted $524 million inflows, while Ethereum spot ETFs saw $107 million in outflows.
Bearish
Morgan Stanley’s warning and Bitcoin’s breach of the key 365-day moving average point to fading bullish momentum. Stagnant inflows from stablecoins and ETFs reduce available liquidity. The Fed’s split over a December rate cut further dampens risk appetite, echoing past cycles where rate-cut uncertainty preceded crypto sell-offs (e.g., late 2018). In the short term, traders may lock in gains, increasing downward pressure. Long-term institutional interest and project developments could underpin a recovery, but only after market consolidation and clearer monetary policy signals.