Bitcoin bear market 2026: On-chain signals hint at a bottom
CryptoQuant data highlighted two on-chain indicators in the Bitcoin bear market 2026 that traders interpret as possible early bottoming. First, “Supply in Profit” (coins currently worth more than their last move) reportedly broke below the long-used cycle-bottom trend line for the first time this cycle, sitting around 10.2M BTC (author: CW8900). CryptoQuant described it as record-strong downward pressure, but the key trader takeaway is that whales may be absorbing sell-side while newer holders capitulate.
Second, STXO behavior from “OG” (>5 years) holders showed selling pressure easing: the 90-day moving average fell to about 962 BTC, the lowest since Nov 2024 (analyst: Darkfost). Past peaks in this cohort occurred around May 2024 (~3,860 BTC), Feb 2025 (~3,200 BTC), and later (~2,360 BTC). The article notes these OG holders may have effectively “paused” distribution near today’s price region.
However, the Bitcoin bear market 2026 still shows unresolved bearish market structure. The piece cites forced-liquidation data of about $404M (with shorts taking much of the impact). It also references short-term holder SOPR at ~0.998 (near breakeven) and that price has not reclaimed a watched $68,000–$70,000 liquidity/resistance zone tied to broader support/mean-reversion behavior (e.g., the 200-week moving average).
Overall, the news frames a tension: older wallets look like they’re accumulating, while price action remains bearish—so the “bottom” signal could be early and may require confirmation.
Neutral
The article is essentially a “possible early bottom” story, not a confirmed reversal. Two on-chain indicators in the Bitcoin bear market 2026—Supply in Profit breaking the historic cycle-bottom trend line and reduced 5y+ OG STXO selling (90-day avg ~962 BTC)—suggest whales may be absorbing supply. That can reduce downside pressure and support dip-buying.
Yet the same piece flags classic bear-market confirmation gaps: liquidation/positioning indicators are mixed (SOPR near breakeven rather than clearly profit-taking by recent holders), and price is still below a key $68k–$70k liquidity/resistance area tied to longer-term averages (e.g., 200-week MA). In past cycles, similar “capitulation-like” on-chain shifts often appear before price fully reclaims resistance, leading to false bottoms or prolonged chop.
Trading implications: short-term, this may justify cautious bids with tight risk controls because sell pressure could be easing. Medium-term, traders likely wait for follow-through—e.g., reclaiming the $68k–$70k zone and improving profitability metrics—to confirm that absorption is turning into sustained accumulation.