Bitcoin Bear Flag Relief—$66K Rejection Risks Another Leg Down
Bitcoin has slipped to around $59,100 (a new low) and is now trading sideways to slightly higher—typical of a bear flag forming relief before the next move. In the 4-hour chart, BTC is struggling to reclaim the $62,800 horizontal resistance and the 50-day SMA. Bulls would need a push through ~$64,000, then $66,000 (likely the bear-flag top).
If Bitcoin fails near $66K, the article expects rejection and a move back down through the bull-market trendline toward a retest of the bear-market trendline, with the potential for a breakdown toward sub-$50K Bitcoin.
On the daily/weekly structure, the author argues the bear market is “going to plan” so far: price previously fell rapidly from above $80K, then bounced from $60K where multiple supports overlap (bull-market trendline and the 200-week SMA). The weekly Stochastic RSI is described as trending down quickly, with another 3 weeks potentially needed to bottom out and turn up.
Overall takeaway for traders: treat the current sideways-to-up bounce as a short-term relief phase, but watch key resistance ($62.8K, $64K, $66K). A rejection there would strengthen the probability of renewed downside pressure. A sustained reclaim would weaken the bear-flag thesis and keep support levels in focus.
Bearish
The article’s framing is bearish overall: it treats the current sideways-to-slightly-up move in Bitcoin as relief inside a bear flag, where upside is viewed mainly as an opportunity to sell near resistance. The key decision levels are clearly mapped: failure to break $62.8K/$64K and especially rejection near ~$66K would likely trigger another downswing toward the bull-market trendline and then a retest of the bear-market trendline, with sub-$50K flagged as a possible extension.
This resembles prior “bear flag” playbooks traders often see in downtrends: brief consolidations that look constructive on lower timeframes, followed by downside continuation when resistance aligns with trendline failures. The mention of overlapping weekly supports ($60K, bull-market trendline, 200-week SMA) explains why the market can bounce first—this supports short-term stabilization—but those same supports become the “line in the sand” for long-term bulls.
Short-term impact: watch for a sell-the-rip reaction around $66K if momentum indicators (like Stochastic RSI) continue rolling over. Long-term impact: if BTC eventually loses these layered supports again, the probability of a deeper leg lower rises; if BTC instead reclaims and holds $66K and above, it would challenge the bear-flag completion narrative and potentially shift risk toward trend repair.