Bitcoin Ends Q4 Down; Analyst Warns Bear Market Could Persist 2–3 Months
Bitcoin closed Q4 2025 weakly after peaking near $126,200 in October and has since fallen about 30%, trading around $87k at press time. Crypto analyst GugaOnChain highlights a negative Q4 performance (-19.15%) and several capitulation and sentiment indicators pointing to continued downside: SOPR at 0.99 (investors selling at a loss), Short-Term Holder MVRV at 0.87, 35.66% of supply in loss, and the Fear & Greed Index at 20 (“extreme fear”). Market-cap growth rate (30d vs 365d MA gap) is -11.65%, US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $825.7M net outflows (Dec 18–24), and Coinbase premium gap is -66.11, indicating weaker US demand. GugaOnChain concludes these metrics imply the bear phase could extend into early 2026 for roughly two to three months, with further downside likely until capitulation signals ease and demand normalizes. Traders should note elevated selling pressure, low sentiment, and institutional outflows when sizing positions and managing risk.
Bearish
Multiple on-chain and market indicators point to persistent downside pressure. Key capitulation metrics (SOPR <1, MVRV-STH <1, 35.66% supply in loss) historically correlate with continued selling and weak price recovery during bear phases. Negative market-cap growth (-11.65%), large ETF outflows (~$825.7M over a week), and a deep negative Coinbase premium indicate both contracting demand and reduced institutional interest—factors that typically prolong corrections. The extreme Fear & Greed reading (20) suggests retail sentiment is risk-averse, increasing the likelihood of volatile sell-offs rather than decisive rallies. Short-term impact: elevated volatility, lower highs, and possible further declines as sellers dominate; traders should tighten risk management, prefer reduced leverage, and watch for capitulation signs (SOPR rising above 1, shrinking supply in loss, ETF inflows) before adding significant long exposure. Long-term impact: if these capitulation signals resolve and institutional flows stabilize, the market could resume recovery; until then, the outlook remains bearish. This pattern mirrors past post-peak corrections where sustained negative on-chain metrics and ETF outflows extended drawdowns for multiple months.