Analyst: Bitcoin Not in a Bull Market — $80K Wasn’t the Bottom
Bitcoin fell toward $86,000 before recovering to about $87,800 as risk-off sentiment hit crypto markets. Analyst Mr. Wall Street stated the drop to levels last seen in mid-December 2025 does not represent a durable bottom and called the current phase a “huge bear market,” warning of “much lower targets.” Axel Adler Jr. described the cycle as a deepening crypto winter beginning in November, creating “pressure, fatigue, doubt” among holders and forcing market consolidation. Macro factors pushing traders defensive include renewed currency-market tension after a New York Fed USD/JPY ‘rate check’ and elevated US political risk around government funding expiring Jan 30; Polymarket prices a ~75% chance of a shutdown by Jan 31. QCP Capital reports unwinding of short-yen exposure, rising put skew and implied volatility in crypto, and warns prices may chop amid high volatility and uncertainty. Key takeaways for traders: Bitcoin remains vulnerable despite brief rebounds; increased volatility and defensive positioning suggest higher downside risk and wider ranges in the near term; monitor USD/JPY intervention risk, US fiscal developments, put skew, and implied volatility for trade signals.
Bearish
The coverage and analyst quotes point to continued downside risk for Bitcoin. Two named analysts explicitly describe the market as a bear market/crypto winter and warn that the recent low was not a durable bottom; one forecasts “much lower targets.” Macro drivers cited—currency-market tension around USD/JPY and US political risk over funding—are classic risk-off catalysts that push asset managers to de-risk, unwind leveraged positions, and widen bid-ask ranges. QCP’s observation of rising put skew and implied volatility signals increased demand for downside protection, which historically precedes further price declines or extended choppy trade. In the short term, expect high volatility, frequent intraday swings, and defensive positioning that favors shorts, protective puts, or reduced directional exposure. In the medium-to-long term, if macro risks (currency intervention, US fiscal standoff) resolve positively and volatility contracts, liquidity could return and set the stage for recovery; but until clear regime change occurs, the market structure described (sustained skew, defensive flows, analyst downside targets) supports a bearish bias. Comparable episodes: 2018 and 2022 saw rising put skew and macro stress precede multi-week drawdowns before eventual recoveries once volatility declined and fundamentals improved.