Bitcoin Bear Market May Have Ended After 267 Days and 52% Drop
Bitcoin’s current bear market may have ended on 30 June 2026 after lasting 267 days and producing a 52% decline from its October 2025 peak. If confirmed, it would be Bitcoin’s shortest and shallowest bear market since 2013, compared with previous cycles that lasted 362 to 406 days and fell 77% to 85%.
Bitcoin has since risen nearly 50% from the June low, including a gain of more than 10% in the week before 23 September. River, a Bitcoin financial services firm, argues that the rally has been driven mainly by tightening supply rather than stronger demand. About 81% of circulating Bitcoin has not moved for at least six months, while long-term holders have accumulated more than 3 million BTC since 2020. The movement of dormant coins has also declined sharply in 2026.
However, analysts and Reddit users remain cautious. They argue that a shallow Bitcoin bear market could reflect a weaker preceding bull market, while Bitcoin’s cycle-to-cycle returns have also diminished. Bitcoin remained down about 5% year to date on 30 September, meaning it would need to recover above roughly $88,000 to finish the year in positive territory.
River acknowledged that demand has not clearly returned. Traders should therefore treat the rally as supply-driven and expect continued volatility until ETF inflows, trading volume and broader market demand improve.
Neutral
The market impact is neutral because the article presents evidence for both a potential Bitcoin bottom and continued downside risk. The 267-day duration and 52% decline are historically mild, while the nearly 50% rebound from the June low could support bullish sentiment and encourage traders to position for a new cycle.
However, the rally appears to be supply-driven. Exchange volume is reportedly 30% below the start of the year, and Bitcoin ETF purchases in September remained below their post-launch monthly average. Bitcoin was also still down about 5% year to date. Without stronger demand, the market may be vulnerable to profit-taking and sharp pullbacks, similar to previous bear-market rallies that briefly recovered before establishing a durable uptrend.
In the short term, traders may see increased volatility around the $88,000 level, ETF flows, macroeconomic policy and regulatory developments such as the CLARITY Act. A sustained move above the year-opening price, rising spot demand and stronger trading volume would improve the bullish case. In the longer term, the reduced movement of dormant Bitcoin and declining sell-side supply could amplify gains if institutional and retail demand return. Until then, the evidence is insufficient to confirm a new Bitcoin bull market.