Bitcoin Bear Market Shows Signs of Ending
Bitcoin showed strong resilience after two major setbacks: the US Senate failed to advance the CLARITY Act in a 49–50 procedural vote, and the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 basis points to 3.75%–4.00%, its first hike since July 2023. Bitcoin briefly fell to $74,888 but recovered to above $80,000 by the end of the week. The move has strengthened the view that the Bitcoin bear market may be ending, because negative news is producing a smaller price reaction.
The market remains exposed to geopolitical tensions, energy disruptions, tighter monetary policy and uncertainty surrounding artificial intelligence. However, Bitcoin has held within a higher $75,000–$80,000 range after a 23% rally triggered by expectations of larger US Treasury bond buybacks. Its exchange ratio with gold also rose to 18.55 ounces per BTC, a 21% monthly increase and the highest level since January 2026.
Regulatory uncertainty remains a risk. The SEC said it would continue advancing crypto rules and issued an exemption for certain tokenised US stocks. The US Treasury also sanctioned Iranian exchange BitBank over alleged transactions linked to Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. In mining, Canaan reported a $97.6 million second-quarter loss, while Ethiopia reduced electricity deliveries to Bitcoin miners by 77% because of weaker reservoir inflows.
For traders, Bitcoin’s ability to absorb adverse news is a potentially bullish signal, but rate policy, regulation and liquidity remain key volatility drivers.
Bullish
The article is moderately bullish for Bitcoin because the market absorbed two potentially negative catalysts: the CLARITY Act’s Senate setback and a 25-basis-point Federal Reserve rate hike. Bitcoin’s brief decline to $74,888 followed by a recovery above $80,000 suggests that sellers were unable to maintain downside momentum. Historically, when prices stop responding sharply to adverse headlines, it can indicate improving demand, stronger positioning and a transition away from a bear-market structure.
The recovery also follows a 23% rally linked to expectations of larger US Treasury bond buybacks, highlighting the importance of liquidity conditions. If bond-market support or renewed risk appetite develops, Bitcoin could challenge higher resistance levels. Its stronger performance relative to gold may also reinforce its appeal as a non-sovereign store of value.
However, the bullish view is not risk-free. Higher interest rates can pressure speculative assets, while the failure of the CLARITY Act leaves regulatory uncertainty unresolved. SEC enforcement, sanctions involving BitBank, weaker mining economics and reduced electricity access in Ethiopia could create additional sector stress. Similar to past post-rate-hike recoveries, Bitcoin may remain volatile even if its broader trend improves. Traders should monitor the $75,000–$80,000 range, liquidity indicators, ETF or institutional flows, and follow-through above $80,000 before treating the recovery as a confirmed trend reversal.