Bitcoin Bear Market May Be Over, CryptoQuant Says
CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju says the Bitcoin bear market may be over after the firm’s PnL Index crossed above its 365-day moving average. The indicator combines MVRV, NUPL and SOPR data across holder groups. A similar signal appeared in January 2023 before Bitcoin rose from about $16,000 to more than $73,000.
The latest signal followed Bitcoin’s fall to around $60,000 in February and its subsequent break above the $62,000-$67,000 consolidation range. Bitcoin later reached approximately $79,400. US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded about $1.92 billion in net inflows over five trading days, while CryptoQuant’s Bull Score rose from 30 to 80, with eight of its 10 indicators turning bullish.
However, the Bitcoin bear market has not been definitively declared over. CryptoQuant says the signal increases the probability that the $60,000 area was a market bottom but does not confirm a sustained rally. Bitcoin’s short-term holder cost basis is near $68,500. A sustained break below this level could leave recent buyers at a loss and increase selling pressure.
For traders, the signal is bullish for medium- to long-term Bitcoin momentum, but short-term volatility remains possible. ETF flows, market liquidity, realized-price levels and a decisive move above resistance should be monitored before treating the Bitcoin bear market as fully ended.
Bullish
The market impact is bullish because CryptoQuant’s PnL Index has moved above its 365-day moving average, a signal that previously preceded a major Bitcoin recovery. The latest move is supported by Bitcoin’s breakout from the $62,000-$67,000 range, roughly $1.92 billion in spot Bitcoin ETF inflows over five trading days, and a sharp improvement in CryptoQuant’s Bull Score.
In the short term, traders may respond positively to the stronger on-chain data and ETF demand, but volatility remains a risk. Bitcoin’s short-term holder cost basis near $68,500 is an important support area. A sustained move below it could trigger loss realization and renewed selling. Weak liquidity or failure to break resistance could also limit momentum.
Over the medium and long term, the indicator increases the probability that the area around $60,000 formed a market bottom. However, it is not confirmation that the Bitcoin bear market has ended. Continued ETF inflows, stronger demand, improved liquidity and sustained prices above key realized-price levels would be needed to validate a durable Bitcoin uptrend.