CryptoQuant: Bitcoin demand contracting signals new bear market
CryptoQuant analysts report that Bitcoin (BTC) demand growth materially slowed from October 2025, indicating the market may have entered a new bear phase. They outline three prior demand waves in the cycle — ETF launches in early 2024, a post-2024 election spike, and later corporate/“vault” accumulation — but say incremental institutional buying has largely been exhausted. Key on-chain and market metrics cited: roughly 24,000 BTC of ETF outflows in Q4 2025 versus strong ETF buying in Q4 2024; perpetual futures funding rates falling to their lowest levels since December 2023; and BTC price trading below the 365-day moving average (~$98,172), a dynamic support many traders monitor. Sentiment indicators remain weak (CoinMarketCap Fear & Greed Index in ‘fear’), and CME FedWatch assigns only a ~22% chance of a near-term Fed rate cut, reducing the likelihood of a rate-driven relief rally. While some analysts keep a bullish view for 2026 if demand returns and rates fall, the current combination of weakening ETF flows, depressed funding rates, and breach of the 365-day MA are near-term bearish signals that increase downside risk and potential consolidation. Traders should watch institutional ETF flows, funding-rate trends, the 365-day moving average, and Fed policy as primary catalysts for volatility and directional shifts.
Bearish
The combined evidence points to a bearish outlook for BTC price in the near term. Key supply-and-demand metrics show institutional demand contracting: about 24,000 BTC of ETF outflows in Q4 2025 contrasts with prior strong ETF buying, and corporate accumulation appears to have run its course. Perpetual funding rates falling to their lowest since Dec 2023 signal reduced leverage-driven buying pressure and increased risk of directional selling. Technically, BTC trading below the 365-day moving average — a long-term dynamic support — signals loss of trend strength and makes further downside or extended consolidation more likely. Sentiment remains weak, and the low probability of an imminent Fed rate cut reduces the chance of a macro-triggered relief rally. Together, these on-chain flows, derivatives indicators, technical breakdown, and macro outlook justify a bearish classification for BTC price impact. Over the short term, expect elevated volatility, potential further declines, and range-bound behavior until ETF flows pick up, funding rates normalize, or policy expectations change. Over the longer term, a recovery would likely require renewed institutional demand or a clearer easing in rates, so traders should monitor ETF inflows, funding-rate recovery, and Fed guidance as primary signals for trend reversal.