Analyst Warns BTC Could Drop to $54K–$60K After Failed Rally; Shorts Target $98K–$104K
A prominent crypto analyst known as “Mr. Wall Street” published a technical breakdown warning that Bitcoin (BTC) has lost bullish structure and may enter a prolonged bear market. Key technical signals cited include a weekly close below the 50-week EMA, a bearish monthly MACD crossover and RSI divergence. He expects a final rebound to retest the weekly EMA50 in the $98,000–$104,000 zone, where he placed short positions targeting an initial decline to $74,000–$68,000 and a deeper fall to $54,000–$60,000 by Q4 2026 absent major liquidity injections. The analyst attributes downside risk to macro deterioration (weaker jobs and falling underlying inflation), delayed Fed easing leaving policy tight, stress in funding markets, heavy use of US repo facilities, tech/AI stock weakness, and potential BOJ rate moves that could unwind carry trades. He remains long-term constructive on Bitcoin’s finite supply, forecasting a recovery path (around $89,000 in 2027 and eventual upside toward $110,000–$160,000) but expects a multi-quarter correction unless large-scale QE is enacted. A second analyst, Doctor Profit, echoed that BTC remains in a strong bear market. Traders should note the suggested short-entry zone ($98K–$104K), initial targets ($74K–$68K), and the lower-range projection ($54K–$60K), while monitoring macro indicators, Fed/BOJ policy signals, funding liquidity, and technical confirmations (EMA50, MACD, RSI) for trade management.
Bearish
The combined reports present a bearish outlook for BTC. Technical indicators cited by the analysts (weekly close below 50-week EMA, monthly MACD death cross, RSI divergence) signal loss of bullish momentum and justify short positions on a retest of $98K–$104K with initial targets near $74K–$68K. Macro factors—delayed Fed easing, weaker jobs and lower underlying inflation—raise the probability of a multi-quarter correction by reducing risk appetite and limiting liquidity support. Funding stress (repo usage, market-maker strain), weakness in tech/AI equities, and potential BOJ rate normalization that could unwind carry trades add additional downward pressure. Short-term impact: elevated volatility with downside bias around the identified resistance zone; traders should use tight risk management and watch for technical confirmations before opening or scaling positions. Medium-to-long term: analysts still expect eventual recovery (target levels cited for 2027 and beyond), but only after a significant liquidity environment or multi-quarter consolidation. Overall, the news increases the likelihood of continued price weakness for BTC until either macro liquidity improves or technical structure reasserts bullishness.