Analyst: Bitcoin Bear Market May Last Into Late 2026, Bottoming Not Expected Until Sept–Oct
Prominent analyst Doctor Profit says the current Bitcoin bear market could persist into late 2026, with a potential market bottom in September–October 2026. He tweeted that he moved remaining USDT back to the banking system and holds no liquid crypto, citing prolonged bearish conditions. Doctor Profit disclosed a large BTC short entered in the $115,000–$125,000 range and a medium long position bought around $85,000; he expects a short-term rally toward ~$107,000 ahead of another downward leg in Feb–Mar. Bitcoin traded near $89,259 after a 2% daily gain, staying below critical resistance. On-chain data from CryptoQuant identifies $100,000 as key short-term resistance because new whales (holders <155 days) have an average cost basis ~ $100,500. Binance spot users average cost sits near $56,000, offering downside support, while long-term whales (>155 days) average cost is about $40,000. Analyst Ali Martinez warns that losing the 50-week SMA historically led to average declines of ~54%, implying a potential drop toward $40,000 if that level is not reclaimed. Key keywords: Bitcoin, BTC, bear market, on-chain data, CryptoQuant, 50-week SMA, whale cost basis.
Bearish
The article emphasizes prolonged bearish expectations from a prominent analyst and on-chain signals that reinforce downside risk. Doctor Profit’s public shift of USDT to banks and absence of liquid crypto is a risk-off signal that may trigger cautious behavior among traders. His disclosed large BTC short and expectation of a renewed downward leg in Feb–Mar suggest directional downside pressure. CryptoQuant on-chain metrics identify $100,000 as a concentrated break-even level for recent buyers; failure to clear this can prompt profit-taking and volatility. Binance users’ lower cost basis (~$56,000) provides a support band, while long-term whales remain profitable around ~$40,000 — a reference point if selling intensifies. Historical technical analysis (50-week SMA) showing ~54% average declines when lost supports the scenario of a deeper pullback toward $40,000. Short-term impact: increased volatility, potential relief rallies toward resistance ($100k–$107k) followed by renewed selling—favouring short strategies, tighter risk management, and derivatives hedging. Long-term impact: extended consolidation and structural bear-market dynamics could deter new capital inflows into BTC and increase range-bound trading until a clear macro/on-chain recovery emerges. Overall, the combined on-chain cost-base concentration, public positioning by influential traders, and technical risks point to a bearish outlook for traders.