Bitcoin Bear Market Signal Hits as Miners Capitulate Fast
Bitcoin bear market signals are strengthening as on-chain data points to capitulation among miners and renewed activity from older holders. CryptoQuant reports a key crossover: the short-term holder (STH) cost basis has fallen below the long-term holder (LTH) line for the first time in a similar way near prior bear-phase endings. STH wallets hold BTC for under six months, while LTH reflects six months and beyond (with CryptoQuant excluding coins parked over seven years to keep the LTH reading cleaner). The STH cost basis dropped from about $112,500 to $69,000, helping explain why the crossover is occurring now rather than earlier—newer buyers appear to be averaging into weakness.
Supply-side stress is visible. Miner shutdowns jumped about 2,150% versus the 90-day baseline. At the same time, “ancient” coins (7–10 years dormant) spiked roughly 374%, alongside a rise in Coin Days Destroyed—suggesting a structural supply reshuffle. Coinflow data also shows miner-to-Binance transfers rising more than 470%. CryptoOnchain frames this as redistribution rather than immediate panic.
Despite this pressure, Bitcoin price “barely blinked”: the article highlights that passive demand may be absorbing miner capitulation and veteran distribution without forcing a sharper downside leg. The piece also notes earlier patterns where long-term holders continued repricing cost bases upward even as spot softened, and institutional inflows over the past two years did not break the broader miner/holder behavior.
Net: this Bitcoin bear market setup is bearish in structure, but the absence of aggressive price follow-through hints at potential near-term stabilization.
Bearish
This article highlights a classic on-chain bearish transition: the STH cost basis crossing below the LTH line, which has historically coincided with bear-phase turning points. In prior cycles, such crossovers often marked the shift in market regime before capitulation fully played out. The confirmation is reinforced by the sharp rise in miner shutdowns (+2,150% vs 90-day baseline) and increased movement of 7–10 year dormant coins (+374%), plus miner-to-exchange flows rising >470% to Binance—signals consistent with supply becoming forced/redistributed.
However, the piece also notes that Bitcoin price did not break down aggressively, implying passive demand may be absorbing the sell pressure. Traders should therefore expect two-step dynamics: (1) near-term volatility and continued distribution risk while miners and older holders rotate supply, and (2) potential stabilization if absorption keeps up and liquidation depth remains limited.
For short-term trading, this setup can pressure rallies and keep downside hedges bid. For long-term, if the market continues to show cost-basis regime shifts alongside absorption (rather than cascading liquidations), the move can transition from “bear signal” to “bear market digestion,” potentially setting up a later rebound once supply is exhausted—similar to how earlier cycle turning points eventually gave way to bull legs after distribution completed.