Bitcoin May Hit $50K After Entering Bear Market in October
Analyst Joao Wedson of Alphractal warns Bitcoin may enter a bear market as early as October, risking a drop to a $50,000 capitulation bottom by late 2026 based on historic four-year cycle patterns. Ongoing ETF inflows, rising institutional demand and Asia-US liquidity could temporarily buoy prices, but unmet expectations may trigger sharp declines. Traders are closely watching the $100,000 support level; a failure to hold this threshold could confirm a new bear phase, while a successful defense may pave the way to fresh all-time highs. Conversely, some market observers foresee rallies to $140,000 driven by global liquidity and potential Q4 2025 U.S. political volatility. The debate now centres on whether traditional four-year cycles remain reliable amid evolving market dynamics.
Bearish
Wedson’s forecast of a October bear market and a potential $50K capitulation bottom underscores short-term bearish pressure on Bitcoin, especially as traders eye the $100,000 support test. A break below this level could accelerate declines, while holding it may offer a relief rally. Longer-term impact hinges on ETF inflows, institutional demand and global liquidity cycles; unmet market expectations could prolong the bear phase, but sturdy support and fresh liquidity surges might revive bullish momentum toward $140K within the cycle.