Willy Woo: Bitcoin’s Bear Market May Be Far From Over; Options Traders Eye $75K
Bitcoin has traded in a $60K–$70K range since its February 5 crash. Renowned on-chain analyst Willy Woo warned that volatility patterns indicate Bitcoin’s bear market is still strengthening and may progress through additional phases before a true macro bottom. Woo highlighted rising volatility spikes as a sign the bear trend remains intact and said a further equities sell-off and peak capital outflows would deepen the downturn. Glassnode’s on-chain accumulation metrics showed periods of heavy buying during prior drawdowns, but warned a convincing bottom requires renewed aggressive accumulation around $60K or lower. Some options market participants are contrarian: block trades have recently favored calls over puts, with the most common call strike at $75K, implying traders expect a breakout above the current range in the short term. Analysts caution that broader catalysts — including U.S. policy such as the CLARITY Act, midterm election outcomes, and macro risk sentiment — will drive whether a sustained recovery occurs. For traders: short-term upside to $75K is possible given bullish options positioning, but on-chain volatility signals suggest downside risk remains and a multi-phase bear market could take months to resolve.
Bearish
The article centers on Willy Woo’s warning that rising volatility spikes signal an ongoing, strengthening bear market for Bitcoin. Historically, volatility expansion early in a downturn correlates with further downside and protracted bear phases (examples: post-2018 and 2022 drawdowns). Glassnode’s accumulation data does not yet show the aggressive buying typically associated with a durable bottom. Although options block trades favor calls with a common strike at $75K — indicating some traders expect a short-term breakout — this is a contrarian, potentially short-lived positioning that does not negate the broader on-chain signals. Key macro catalysts (equities performance, policy developments like the CLARITY Act, and U.S. elections) could either exacerbate or alleviate downside risk. Short-term implications: elevated volatility and mixed sentiment mean swing traders may see opportunities for quick long trades toward $75K but should use tight risk controls; options sellers/buyers should monitor open interest and skew. Long-term implications: unless clear accumulation and volatility peaks consistent with late-bear phases appear, the bear market may persist for months, increasing the risk of further price declines and delayed recovery.