Bitcoin (BTC) Bear Trap Talk Raises Odds of $40K Test
Bitcoin (BTC) recently tried to rebound toward nearly $65,000, but bears pushed it back to about $62,600. Several analysts now warn the cycle’s bottom may not be in yet.
On X, “Aralez” argues a “massive bull trap” is in its final stage. The scenario calls for a rally toward $70,000 first, followed by a sharp reversal to around $39,000. Another analyst, “Crypto Lens,” expects a drop below $50,000 this week and a break under $40,000 by August, urging traders not to become “exit liquidity.”
The bearish case is also supported by an on-chain/proxy metric: the BTC MVRV ratio is still above 1, which CryptoQuant interprets as the potential floor arriving later (historically associated with “generational buying opportunities”). One commentator (“symbiote”) estimates roughly 80 days remain to the cycle bottom, comparing BTC behavior in the 2018 and 2022 bear markets.
Still, other views are more constructive. “AlΞx Wacy” highlights BTC hitting its most oversold monthly reading on record, often a precursor to rallies. “Ali Martinez” points to BTC’s Accumulation Trend Score staying near 1, suggesting continued large-investor accumulation. Traders will also watch whether July closes green, as Bitcoin has finished the month down only 4 of 13 times historically.
Bearish
The article is dominated by bearish forecasts for Bitcoin (BTC): a potential bull-trap “shakeout” with targets around $40K (and even near $39K) after a first bounce toward $70K. This framing aligns with traders’ historical pattern recognition in prior bear cycles—late-stage rallies often fail and transition into sharper liquidations.
Key indicators cited support this timing risk: MVRV not yet below 1 suggests the “floor” may still be ahead, while the “~80 days to bottom” view ties to past 2018/2022 bear-market rhythm. For short-term trading, those scenarios typically increase downside hedging and reduce dip-buying conviction, because the market may be approaching an “exit liquidity” zone.
However, the presence of bullish offsets (record oversold monthly conditions and large-investor accumulation near 1) makes this more like a volatile transition than a straight sell-off. That means near-term price action could swing sharply—rallies may occur but could be used to fade until BTC confirms a new uptrend. Over the long term, if the “shakeout” indeed completes, the odds of a subsequent trend recovery increase, consistent with cycle-bottom behavior.