Bitcoin Faces Bearish Breakout as ETF Demand Wanes
Bitcoin price has fallen from a recent high of $124,200 to around $112,800, trimming gains after a 50% rally since April. On the weekly chart, Bitcoin has formed a bearish rising wedge pattern and shown bearish divergence in both the Percentage Price Oscillator and the Relative Strength Index. These technical signals suggest a potential breakdown toward the 50-week moving average near $95,000.
Demand for spot Bitcoin ETFs has cooled, with $1.17 billion in outflows last week compared to $547 million of inflows the week before. At the same time, Bitcoin held on exchanges has risen to 2.25 million BTC, the highest level since August 7, indicating increased selling pressure. Together, these developments point to weaker institutional and retail buying interest.
Traders should watch for a decisive weekly close below the wedge’s lower trendline and any further ETF outflows. A breach could trigger a short-term sell-off toward major support at $95,000. While Bitcoin’s long-term fundamentals remain intact, short-term market sentiment has turned cautious amid waning ETF demand and bearish chart setups.
Bearish
The article highlights multiple bearish technical indicators—an ascending wedge nearing its apex, bearish divergence in the Percentage Price Oscillator and RSI, and a flattened accumulation/distribution line—all of which historically precede downward breakouts. Combined with $1.17 billion in spot Bitcoin ETF outflows last week and rising exchange balances (2.25 million BTC), buying pressure is waning at critical resistance levels. Similar setups in past cycles, such as late 2021, led to swift corrections following ETF windows closing. In the short term, traders should anticipate a possible drop to the 50-week moving average near $95,000 if support fails. In the longer term, a return of inflows and renewed accumulation could stabilize prices, but the current convergence of technical and sentiment drivers points to a bearish outlook.