Bitcoin Below $112K After Weak Jobs Report and Fed Cut Bets
Bitcoin remains stuck below $112,000 despite a soft U.S. jobs report and rising Fed rate cut expectations. The August nonfarm payrolls added only 22,000 jobs versus 75,000 forecast, sending rate‐cut odds for the September Fed meeting to 100% and pushing Treasury yields lower.
Technically, bitcoin’s failure to break above the $111,982 double‐top neckline validates a bearish reversal pattern. A drop below the Ichimoku cloud underscores further downside risk, with the next support near the 200-day SMA at $101,700. This mirrors February’s double‐top breakdown, which preceded a multi-week plunge to around $75,000.
While imminent Fed cuts may briefly depress yields—potentially benefiting bitcoin and other risk assets—the downside for the 10-year Treasury yield looks limited and could rebound, as seen from September to December 2024 when yields rose from 3.6% to 4.8%. Higher inflation and ongoing fiscal spending may fuel a post‐cut yield pickup.
Looking ahead, August CPI data due next week could reveal continued inflation stickiness. Analysts expect a 0.3% month-on-month rise in both headline and core CPI, keeping year-on-year rates at roughly 2.9% and 3.1%, respectively.
Bearish
The news signals a bearish outlook for bitcoin. Despite dovish Fed expectations after a weak jobs report, bitcoin failed to break key resistance at $111,982, confirming a double-top reversal. Historically, similar breakdowns—such as February’s double top—led to sharp multi-week sell-offs. Additionally, limited downside in Treasury yields and potential post-cut yield rebounds mirror late-2024 dynamics, which previously weighed on risk assets. In the short term, traders may focus on the $101,700 200-day SMA support; a break below could trigger further declines. Over the longer term, upcoming CPI data and persistent inflationary pressures could spur yield volatility, adding downward pressure on bitcoin until clearer monetary and fiscal signals emerge.