Bitcoin falls below $61k as Middle East tensions rise and ETF outflows persist
Bitcoin (BTC) extended losses on Wednesday, trading below $61,500 amid renewed geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and continued institutional selling. Risk sentiment stayed muted as traders also positioned ahead of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) release for May, which could shape expectations for Federal Reserve policy. If CPI prints hotter, markets may price in a more hawkish Fed and higher-for-longer rates—conditions that typically pressure liquidity and weigh on BTC.
Geopolitical risk escalated after the US carried out strikes against Iran, following the downing of a US Apache helicopter near the Strait of Hormuz. Iran’s IRGC said it targeted US forces in Jordan and warned of further escalation. Separately, institutional demand remained weak: US-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net outflows of $77.44 million on Tuesday (after $91.37 million in outflows earlier in the week), extending a pattern of persistent weekly withdrawals.
Technically, the BTC/USD 4-hour chart remains bearish and “efficient.” BTC is still below key moving averages, and a prior uptrend line near $73,004 has turned into resistance. The RSI around 38 suggests oversold conditions, but it has not confirmed a reversal. MACD remains negative, though downside momentum appears to be moderating, raising the risk of consolidation.
Traders are watching $64,004 as the first major resistance zone. Below the current level, the setup shows no clear immediate support, leaving BTC vulnerable if selling pressure continues into the next macro catalyst (US CPI).
Bearish
This news is bearish because it combines (1) macro/geo risk that dampens risk appetite and can lift rate expectations, with (2) continuing institutional outflows from US spot Bitcoin ETFs, and (3) a still-bearish technical structure for BTC. In similar past episodes, when ETF outflows and hotter-than-expected inflation risk coincide, BTC often struggles to reclaim key moving averages and tends to move into consolidation or further downside until flows stabilize.
Short-term: BTC remains pressured while traders await US CPI. Even though RSI is near oversold and downside momentum may be moderating, the article notes no clear immediate support below, so a breakdown or continuation of selling is plausible if CPI surprises to the upside or geopolitical headlines worsen.
Long-term: the bearish pressure depends on whether the ETF outflow trend reverses and whether rate expectations ease. If BTC can later reclaim the $64,000 region and rebuild momentum above key moving averages, the downside thesis weakens. But as long as institutional demand stays cautious and ETF withdrawals persist, rallies may face supply and fail more easily.