Bitcoin price below $64k as hawkish Fed, ETF outflows bite
Bitcoin price stayed below $64,000 on Thursday, pressured by hawkish Federal Reserve guidance and mixed institutional demand. The Fed held rates at 3.50%–3.75% but shifted forward guidance toward “higher for longer,” lifting projected year-end rate to 3.8% and pushing Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar higher. Spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a net outflow of $82.20 million on Wednesday, adding doubt to sustained inflows.
Bitcoin price rebound attempts look weaker than a true reversal. BTC remains below key moving averages: the 50-day EMA ($70,042), 100-day EMA ($72,839) and 200-day EMA ($78,174). Former uptrend support near $73,833 has turned into resistance. On the 4-hour chart, RSI stays below 50, while MACD remains only slightly positive—signalling corrective bounces inside a bearish structure rather than fresh bullish momentum.
Traders are likely to watch resistance at ~$64,004 first, followed by the 50-day EMA area near $70,042. A stronger recovery likely requires reclaiming these levels, while continued ETF outflows could extend downside pressure.
Bearish
This news skews bearish because it combines tighter monetary expectations with weaker institutional flows. Similar to past periods when the Fed’s guidance turned more restrictive (even without an immediate rate hike), crypto risk appetite typically fades as yields and the USD rise. Here, the Fed kept rates unchanged but removed easing-leaning language and raised the projected year-end rate, pushing markets toward a higher probability of further hikes.
On top of that, the $82.20M net outflow in spot Bitcoin ETFs reduces a key demand channel. When ETF outflows persist after a bounce, traders often treat rallies as corrective until flows stabilize.
Technically, the setup reinforces the macro pressure: BTC is below the 50/100/200-day EMAs and a prior support zone near $73,833 has flipped into resistance. RSI below 50 suggests bearish momentum remains active. Short term, resistance levels ($64,004 then ~$70,042) are likely to cap upside. Longer term, a sustained recovery would probably require the macro narrative to soften and ETF flows to return to net inflow; otherwise, the market may continue to range-to-down.