Bitcoin holds below $70K as markets await U.S. January jobs report
Bitcoin traded in a narrow range under $70,000 ahead of the U.S. January Nonfarm Payrolls release, which was delayed to Wednesday due to a brief federal shutdown. BTC hovered around $69,200–$69,500 as broader crypto markets briefly fell with U.S. equities before recovering. Ether, XRP and Solana underperformed, with ETH down about 1.8%. Analysts said the latest bitcoin drawdown — the largest since the 2024 halving — occurred on low spot volumes, suggesting retail traders largely stepped back while leveraged derivatives and crowded futures positions drove volatility. Research firm Kaiko warned markets are near critical technical support that will test the four‑year cycle framework. Trading firm Wintermute said price moves remain driven by derivatives and short squeezes rather than spot demand. Two Trump administration officials, including Peter Navarro and Kevin Hassett, signaled weaker‑than‑expected jobs data could be likely, and the 10‑year Treasury yield slid roughly 5 basis points to 4.14% on the comments. Economists forecast 70,000 jobs added and a 4.4% unemployment rate. For traders, low spot volumes and derivatives-driven flows mean heightened sensitivity to leverage-driven moves around the jobs print; the employment outcome and ensuing Treasury/Fed expectations are likely to be the immediate market drivers.
Neutral
The article presents a conditional outlook rather than a directional catalyst. Bitcoin is range-bound below $70K with low spot volumes; price moves are currently dominated by leveraged derivatives and crowded futures positions. That structure increases short-term volatility risk but does not, by itself, imply a sustained bullish or bearish trend. The imminent January Nonfarm Payrolls report is the main near-term driver: a significantly weaker print could lower yields and tilt sentiment bullish for risk assets, while a stronger-than-expected report could lift yields and pressure crypto. Historical parallels: past employment surprises have produced short-lived sharp moves in crypto (via rapid shifts in rates and risk appetite) but have rarely reversed larger structural trends without accompanying macro policy changes. Therefore, traders should treat this news as creating event risk—likely to amplify moves and liquidity stress around the print—but not conclusively bullish or bearish for the medium term. Key considerations for traders: monitor spot volume, derivatives open interest and funding rates, and Treasury yields; manage leverage and use tighter risk controls around the jobs release.