Bitcoin Tests $81,300 as Hot US Inflation Weighs on Crypto

Hotter-than-expected US inflation has increased pressure on Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, as traders reassess the outlook for Federal Reserve interest rates. September headline CPI rose 3.7% year on year, while core CPI climbed to 2.6%; monthly core CPI was up 0.3%, above the 0.2% consensus. Treasury yields rose, and the odds of an October rate hike briefly approached 50% before easing to around 26% on CME FedWatch and 30% on Polymarket. Bitcoin fell below $81,000 and briefly touched $80,210 in Asian trading, then recovered above $82,000. Traders are watching $81,300, the floor of a roughly 24-day range. A sustained break below it could put support near $80,400 and then the $77,600–$80,400 zone in focus. Bitcoin’s ability to reclaim and hold $81,300 may help trigger a rebound, particularly if rising futures open interest reflects crowded short positions and options hedges expire on Friday. Institutional and market indicators remain weak. US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net outflows on 14 October; the later report put the figure at $261.4 million, compared with $150.5 million in the earlier account. The short-term holder profit ratio also slipped below 1 in a partial reading. More than $1 billion in crypto positions were liquidated across 14–15 October, with most losses in altcoins. For traders, ETF flows, the $81,300 level and short-term holder profitability are key signals as macro uncertainty leaves Bitcoin vulnerable to further volatility.