Bitcoin Lingers Below $88K as $14B BTC Options Expiry Nears
Bitcoin is trading below $88,200 as investors brace for a $14 billion BTC options expiry on November 28. Data from Laevitas.ch shows open interest of 104,300 BTC in bullish calls (worth $9.1 billion) concentrated above $91,000, increasing downside risk if spot remains lower. Meanwhile, 67,877 BTC in bearish puts (valued at $5.9 billion) have 31% of strikes at $84,500 or below, aligning with current price levels and reinforcing a neutral-to-bearish bias ahead of expiry.
Weak US private payrolls data (-13,500 jobs weekly) and a drop in consumer confidence to 88.7 have dampened risk sentiment, even as the prospect of Federal Reserve easing supports some upside. Over the past 48 hours, traders added year-end bullish calls in the $100,000–112,000 range on Deribit, highlighting medium-term optimism despite near-term caution.
Five price bands outline possible expiry outcomes: net bearish from $85K–88K, balanced at $88K–89K, and net bullish from $89K–92K. Short-term bias remains neutral to bearish, but continued Fed stimulus expectations could drive Bitcoin higher after the expiry.
Neutral
The near-term impact is expected to be neutral as large open interest in bullish calls above $91K could expire worthless if Bitcoin stays below current levels, while bearish puts align with spot prices, balancing directional pressure. Weak US payroll and consumer data add caution and may suppress volatility until expiry. Historically, major options expiries often lead to price consolidation around key strikes. However, ongoing expectations of Fed easing remain supportive and could drive a bullish recovery after the expiry.