Bitcoin cycle dey show bottom for $40K–$46K, Galaxy dey warn

Galaxy Research dey talk say Bitcoin cycle still dey active, but price swings dey "compress," as every four-year cycle dey move less violently. Head of Firmwide Research Alex Thorn base im base-case downside zone on market and onchain data. Key call: Galaxy base-case put possible Bitcoin bottom between $40,000 and $46,000. Deeper "washout" scenario na $30,000–$37,000, while shallower outcome fit hold $51,000–$54,000. The firm expect a Q4 2026 BTCUSD bottom. Why timing fit extend: Only 4 of 13 bottom indicators don trigger so far. Stronger historical "bottom" confirmations—like trading below cost basis, wide holder unrealized losses, sustained loss-taking, and capitulation flush—never show yet. Galaxy note say Bitcoin never fall below im cost basis this cycle, and current MVRV low (~1.14) don stay above past bottoms (those often go below 1.0). Upcycle context: The October 2025 cycle top bin unusually "calm" on several onchain measures (fewer classic top signals, lower MVRV peak vs prior cycles), which help keep market cost basis higher—so the old rule of 75%–85% drop from cycle high fit be outdated. Traders make una note market sensitivity: Galaxy model no dey directly include macro/regulatory factors, but recent selloff drivers wey article highlight (ETF outflows, risk-off pressures, leverage liquidations) fit still accelerate downside if stress return. At reporting time, BTC dey around $63.4K, above the $40K–$46K base-case zone, but inside long-term support regions wey Galaxy dey track.