Bitcoin bottoms near $59,000 as ETF outflows ease—SpaceX IPO and U.S.-Iran peace eyed
Standard Chartered analyst Geoffrey Kendrick says the Bitcoin cycle low is locked near $59,000, calling it an end to the latest crypto winter.
Kendrick’s thesis hinges on two drivers. First, spot Bitcoin ETF redemptions have been among the heaviest since launch. Total redemptions exceeded $5.72B since the second week of May, and some holders are reportedly liquidating to raise cash for Elon Musk’s SpaceX IPO. After SpaceX began trading on Nasdaq around $150, the stock is reportedly about 26% above its IPO price, which Kendrick expects could reduce the specific ETF-related selling pressure.
Second, Kendrick points to a potential U.S.-Iran peace deal tied to oil-market stabilization. If oil prices cap, higher U.S. Treasury yields could cool, easing macro pressure on crypto. The article cites Brent around $87 and WTI around $85 amid Trump’s peace-deal remarks (followed by a later clarification).
To confirm the Bitcoin bottom, Kendrick is watching: (1) an announcement Monday that Michael Saylor’s Strategy (MSTR) bought more Bitcoin this week, and (2) a return to net-positive daily inflows for U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs on Friday.
He also argues this setup would support stronger relative performance for Ether (ETH) versus Bitcoin (BTC).
Bullish
Kendrick’s call is effectively a “bottom confirmation” narrative for Bitcoin. The article links the recent drop to a measurable flow dynamic: heavy spot Bitcoin ETF redemptions (over $5.72B) and potential liquidation to fund the SpaceX IPO. If the IPO listing genuinely absorbs demand and reduces that liquidation window, the immediate supply/demand imbalance in the Bitcoin ETF market could improve—often a short-term catalyst for stabilization and rebound.
On top of flows, the macro hook is also constructive. A credible U.S.-Iran peace deal that cools oil prices can reduce upward pressure on U.S. Treasury yields, which historically helps risk assets (including crypto). In prior market cycles, when yields peaked or were expected to peak, BTC often re-rated upward as discount rates eased.
The watchlist items (Strategy/MSTR buying and a return to net-positive daily spot ETF inflows) are essentially “confirmers” that traders typically use to validate a bottom. If these data points turn positive, it can shift positioning from defensive to opportunistic.
Risks remain. Trump’s later reversal on the deal narrative could reintroduce volatility in oil/yields, and ETF inflows can be lumpy. Still, given the combination of (1) potential ETF selling exhaustion tied to SpaceX liquidity needs and (2) a macro tailwind setup, the expected tilt is bullish for both short-term stabilization and longer-term base-building. The mention that ETH could outperform BTC further suggests rotation into the broader market rather than BTC-only strength.