Bitcoin knack low near $59,000 as ETF money comot slow—SpaceX IPO and USA-Iran peace dey for eye
Standard Chartered analyst Geoffrey Kendrick dey tok say di Bitcoin cycle low don lock near $59,000, im call am as di end of di latest crypto winter.
Kendrick thesis base for two main things. First, spot Bitcoin ETF redemptions don be among di heaviest since dem launch. Total redemptions don pass $5.72B since second week of May, and some holders reportedly dey liquidate to raise cash for Elon Musk SpaceX IPO. After SpaceX start trade for Nasdaq around $150, di stock dey reportedly about 26% above im IPO price, wey Kendrick expect fit reduce the specific ETF-related selling pressure.
Second, Kendrick point to possible U.S.–Iran peace deal wey fit help stabilize oil market. If oil prices cap, higher U.S. Treasury yields fit cool down, easing macro pressure on crypto. The article mention Brent around $87 and WTI around $85 amid Trump peace-deal remarks (followed by later clarification).
To confirm Bitcoin bottom, Kendrick dey watch: (1) announcement on Monday say Michael Saylor’s Strategy (MSTR) buy more Bitcoin dis week, and (2) return to net-positive daily inflows for U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs on Friday.
He also argue say this setup go support stronger relative performance for Ether (ETH) versus Bitcoin (BTC).
Bullish
Kendrick call na, na e dey mean say na confirmation say market don reach bottom for Bitcoin. Di article connect di recent fall to one measurable flow dynamic: heavy spot Bitcoin ETF redemptions (over $5.72B) and possible liquidation to fund di SpaceX IPO. If di IPO listing really absorb demand and reduce dat liquidation window, di immediate supply/demand imbalance for di Bitcoin ETF market fit improve — na wetin sometimes dey short-term catalyst for stabilization and rebound.
Besides flows, di macro angle still constructive. If credible US–Iran peace deal cool oil prices e fit reduce upward pressure on US Treasury yields, and historically dat dey help risk assets (crypto inclusive). For past market cycles, when yields peak or dem expect am to peak, BTC often re-rate upward as discount rates ease.
Di watchlist items (Strategy/MSTR buying and return to net-positive daily spot ETF inflows) na basically “confirmers” wey traders dey use to validate bottom. If these data points turn positive, e fit make positioning shift from defensive to opportunistic.
Risks still dey. If Trump later reverse on di deal narrative e fit bring back volatility to oil/yields, and ETF inflows fit dey lumpy. Still, given di combination of (1) potential ETF selling exhaustion tied to SpaceX liquidity needs and (2) a macro tailwind setup, di expected tilt na bullish for short-term stabilization and longer-term base-building. Di mention say ETH fit outperform BTC also show say rotation dey go into di broader market rather than BTC-only strength.