Bitcoin Bottom Price Debate: Altcoin Sell-Off, Bhutan BTC Transfer, Regulatory Shocks
This week’s “Bitcoin bottom price” debate intensified as traders saw liquidity stress in crypto and mixed macro/regulatory signals.
On the regulatory front, a U.S. bipartisan bill (housing/affordability package) would bar the Fed from issuing a retail CBDC until 2030. In Europe, reporting claims ECB President Christine Lagarde opposed Binance’s MiCA entry, with Greece’s regulator preparing to reject Binance’s MiCA license application—leaving France as a remaining EU footprint.
Market technicals also challenged the “Bitcoin bottom price” narrative. CryptoQuant data cited 15 consecutive months of net selling in altcoins (excluding BTC and ETH). The cumulative buy/sell volume for these assets fell to its deepest negative since tracking began in 2020, erasing early-2025 demand rebounds.
For Bitcoin’s bottom, views diverged: Wintermute said the rebound from the low-$60,000s doesn’t yet confirm a durable structural bottom, warning thin liquidity could drag BTC toward $50,000 if stablecoin and ETF/stable inflows don’t hold. Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong leaned bullish that the cycle bottom likely formed around the $60,000 area, citing historical four-year cycle behavior.
On-chain flows added supply pressure: Bhutan liquidated 533 BTC (about $34.5M) to Binance via Druk Holding & Investments; Bhutan’s tagged sovereign BTC fell sharply from an Oct 2024 peak (~13,000 BTC) and total 2026 outflows reportedly exceeded $230M.
Security/regulatory enforcement also stayed active: South Korea arrested 23 over an $11.1M USDT laundering ring linked to a Cambodian phishing syndicate.
Coinbase meanwhile announced plans for on-chain, one-for-one tokenized U.S. equity (with dividends), suggesting longer-term institutional interest despite short-term volatility.
Bearish
Categorized as bearish because multiple threads point to pressure rather than confirmed stabilization. First, the “Bitcoin bottom price” debate is undermined by liquidity risk: Wintermute highlighted thin summer liquidity and the possibility that weak stablecoin and ETF inflows could pull BTC toward $50,000. Second, altcoin market structure is deteriorating—15 months of net selling (excluding BTC/ETH) implies broad risk-off behavior that often spills over into BTC. Third, Bhutan’s 533 BTC transfer to Binance adds near-term supply risk and can worsen sentiment even if it’s not a massive portion of global liquidity.
Historically, when coin flows show extended net selling in the alt complex while BTC’s rebound lacks clear structural confirmation, traders often delay “bottom calls,” leading to choppy ranges and repeated retests of lower levels. Regulatory friction around Binance/MiCA and new enforcement actions also increase headline-driven volatility, which typically suppresses risk appetite in the short term. Long term, Coinbase’s tokenized equities plan could be supportive for institutional rails, but it is unlikely to offset the immediate bearish flow and liquidity signals.