Analyst: Bitcoin May Have Bottomed — $100K Relief Rally Possible
Bitcoin may be forming a short-term bottom as on-chain and technical signals show stabilisation, suggesting a relief rally toward the $100,000–$110,000 range. Trader Mister Crypto pointed to the weekly Relative Strength Index (RSI) approaching the 30 oversold level and increased long positions by large traders (whales) despite sentiment dropping into “extreme fear.” Historically, moves from similar RSI levels have preceded temporary bounces. Another technical point of interest is Bitcoin’s distance from the 50-week moving average, near $102,000; past cycles have seen retracements back toward that average after dips. Macro expectations — potentially easing quantitative tightening and a future interest-rate cut — could further support risk assets like Bitcoin. However, the analyst cautioned the broader market remains in bear territory and any rally may be temporary and followed by renewed weakness. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index recently moved from “Extreme Fear” to “Fear” (28), and some analysts see asymmetric upside if macro conditions improve.
Bullish
The news is classified as bullish because it highlights technical and behavioural indicators that historically precede short-term bounces: weekly RSI nearing the 30 oversold threshold, whales opening long positions, and price distance from the 50-week moving average (near $102k) which has acted as a magnet in prior cycles. Macro catalysts cited — potentially easing quantitative tightening and future rate cuts — would further support risk-on flows. For traders, this implies a higher probability of a relief rally into the $100k–$110k area in the short term, presenting tactical long or mean-reversion opportunities. However, the coverage also notes broader bear-market conditions remain, so any rally could be temporary and followed by renewed weakness. This suggests a trading approach focused on short-term longs with disciplined risk management: tight stops, position sizing, and readiness to take profits near the 50-week MA or the $100k–$110k zone. Past parallels include rebounds from extreme RSI readings and fear-driven selloffs (e.g., March 2020), where swift bounces were followed by extended consolidation — implying potential for a volatile but tradable short-term rally without commitment to a sustained bull run.