Bitcoin price near a bottom? K33 flags underwater supply and $60K
K33 Research says the Bitcoin price near a bottom signal is forming after a fresh selloff. More than 50% of Bitcoin’s circulating supply is now in an unrealized loss, rising from ~30% a month earlier. This shift matters because K33 has seen it appear near major Bitcoin bear-market bottoms.
Bitcoin briefly fell below $60,000 and traded about 4.29% below the 200-week moving average during the June decline. The report views the area near $60,000 as a possible cycle low, but it notes the historical pattern can still include one final deeper drop after the “50% underwater” reading.
K33 also points to selling pressure from spot demand and investment vehicles. Global Bitcoin ETPs logged 22,840 BTC in weekly outflows, with average daily outflows around 4,108 BTC (May 7–June 8). Fear sentiment stayed extreme: the Fear & Greed Index hit 8 (then recovered to 10). Market momentum weakened as Bitcoin’s daily RSI fell to its lowest since Nov 2018.
Risk from forced liquidations appears lower. CME Bitcoin futures open interest dropped to a 2.5-year low, futures premiums narrowed, and perpetual funding plus open interest eased from recent highs—reducing near-term liquidation-driven downside. Still, weak spot demand and ETP outflows remain key headwinds.
Overall, K33’s base case places the Bitcoin cycle low near $60,000, but it recommends patience and an unleveraged approach—because Bitcoin price near a bottom signals are not a guarantee of immediate recovery.
Neutral
K33’s thesis is mixed: it highlights a classic “Bitcoin price near a bottom” setup (over 50% of supply underwater, seen near prior bear-market bottoms), but it also stresses that the signal often appears early and can be followed by another deeper selloff. That combination usually produces choppy, range-bound trading rather than an immediate trend reversal.
Short-term, traders should watch two opposing forces. On the downside, ETP outflows and extreme fear keep sell pressure elevated, while Bitcoin remaining under the 200-week moving average can limit dip-buy confidence. On the upside, lower leverage (fewer liquidation catalysts via falling futures open interest and funding rates) can reduce sudden cascade drops, supporting stabilization around $60,000.
Longer term, if Bitcoin price near a bottom leads into a sustained reclaim of key trend levels, the “cycle low near $60,000” base case could improve risk/reward for swing buyers. However, given historical exceptions (notably the 2014 cycle) and the warning that a second leg down is possible, leverage-focused traders may prefer smaller sizing or hedging until spot/ETP flows cool and technicals confirm the turn.