Bitcoin Signals Possible Bottom as Analysts Eye Next Moonshot
Bitcoin slid to just under $60,000, cutting its value by over 53% from the October all-time high. While the drop is less severe than prior cycles, analysts say Bitcoin may have already bottomed—or is very close.
Merlijn The Trader argued that “Bitcoin looks dead now,” suggesting that capitulation-style sentiment has historically preceded a major rebound. He compared this phase to past bear cycles (2012, 2016, 2020), where months of suppressed price action ended only after sentiment hit extreme lows. However, he also warned that another “flush” could still happen before the eventual moonshot.
Michaël van de Poppe highlighted on-chain metrics pointing to a bear-market transition. One key indicator is the Puell Multiple, which has fallen to 0.65—among the lowest levels in Bitcoin’s history. Van de Poppe cautioned that Bitcoin could still consolidate for months or dip slightly lower, but noted that the market has already been ranging between $60,000 and $80,000 since the early-February crash.
Separately, the article points to Bitcoin’s “electrical cost” (average mining cost per unit) being hit for the fifth time in 11 years. In past instances, this has been associated with historic bottoms and subsequent large rallies.
Bullish
The article is framed around signals that Bitcoin may be nearing a cycle bottom. Multiple analysts cite on-chain confirmation (e.g., Puell Multiple at ~0.65) and a historical pattern where Bitcoin hits its “electrical cost” level and later launches large rallies. That combination typically increases the probability of a tradable rebound and improves medium-term sentiment.
However, the piece also keeps a caveat: consolidation from $60,000–$80,000 has already lasted for months, and another “flush” is still possible. Traders should expect volatility around this range—short-term whipsaws are possible even if the longer-term base is forming.
Historically, capitulation-like lows in Bitcoin often lead to a base-building phase before a stronger breakout. If the referenced bottoming formation develops, the market could transition from range-bound trading into an upside expansion. If indicators fail, the bullish thesis weakens and BTC may retest lower levels.