Bitcoin Bottom Unconfirmed as Spot ETF Outflows Persist, Wintermute Warns
Wintermute says Bitcoin’s recent selloff has not confirmed a durable market bottom because institutional demand is still missing. The firm points to persistent spot Bitcoin ETF redemptions: U.S. spot BTC ETFs logged a 13-session outflow streak, with about $4.37B withdrawn since mid-May, and another net outflow of roughly $91.37M on June 8. Total ETF net assets fell from over $100B in mid-May to about $79.6B by June 8.
Wintermute adds that broader trading conditions remain weak. Bitcoin traded near $61,828 (down ~3.18% on the day and ~14% on the week). CoinGlass shows over $1.78B in leveraged position liquidations over the past 24 hours, with crypto derivatives open interest around $103.5B.
Macro factors are also weighing on risk assets. Stronger U.S. data (jobs and accelerating services inflation) keeps rate pressure elevated, with the 10-year Treasury yield cited around 4.57%.
Notably, CryptoQuant flags potential capitulation: “Bitcoin supply in loss” rose to 50% (a 2026 high), which historically aligns with cycle bottoms. Wintermute acknowledges some longer-term accumulation, but says a lasting Bitcoin recovery likely requires renewed institutional inflows—spot ETF demand is the key gate.
Upcoming risk appetite signals include the SpaceX IPO on June 12, but Wintermute’s core message remains: until spot Bitcoin ETF inflows return, the BTC bottom is unconfirmed.
Bearish
Wintermute’s bearish stance is driven by one trading-critical fact: spot Bitcoin ETFs are still shedding capital and institutional demand hasn’t returned. In past downturns, persistent ETF outflows have often preceded continued weakness or delayed bottoms, because they reflect sustained risk reduction by larger allocators rather than a one-off sell event.
Short term, the combination of negative ETF flows, continued leveraged liquidations (over $1.78B in 24 hours cited), and macro pressure from higher-for-longer rates can keep sell rallies fragile—traders typically fade attempts to “buy the dip” until ETF inflows stabilize.
Longer term, the CryptoQuant “capitulation” clue (Bitcoin supply in loss reaching ~50%) suggests selling may be approaching exhaustion, which can support selective accumulation. But Wintermute’s key gating condition remains unchanged: a durable recovery likely requires renewed spot Bitcoin ETF inflows and institutional re-entry.
Therefore, the market setup is consistent with a bearish/uncertain bottom rather than a confirmed reversal—until ETF demand turns back positive, downside risk remains more dominant than upside conviction.