Bitcoin may be nearing a bottom versus gold; USD-denominated trough could extend into late 2026
Analyst Rony Szuster of Mercado Bitcoin says bitcoin could be nearing a market bottom when priced in gold, potentially as soon as February–March 2026. Using historical patterns (12–13 month bear markets), Bitcoin’s USD peak in October 2025 (~$126,000) implies a downturn that might last into late 2026. The divergence arises because bitcoin weakened against gold earlier: bitcoin’s high versus gold occurred in January 2025, and gold has rallied over 80% in the past year to about $5,280 amid rising global uncertainty (World Uncertainty Index) and geopolitical tensions involving the U.S., China and Iran. Capital rotation into bullion and roughly $7.8 billion of outflows from spot BTC ETFs since November (≈12% of $61.6B AUM) have pressured BTC. At the same time, large investors are accumulating — Abu Dhabi firms Mubadala and Al Warda added spot ETF exposure in mid-February — suggesting accumulation by whales. Szuster recommends dollar-cost averaging to build positions during the current fear-driven environment, noting historical evidence that buying in periods of fear yields better average prices than buying in euphoria. Key points for traders: bitcoin vs gold ratio may signal an earlier local bottom; USD price action may still have downside through late 2026; monitor ETF flows, geopolitical risk, and institutional accumulation; consider DCA to mitigate timing risk.
Neutral
The report presents mixed signals that justify a neutral market view. Bullish factors: bitcoin priced in gold may already be near a local bottom (Feb–Mar 2026), and institutional accumulation (Abu Dhabi firms buying spot ETF exposure) suggests long-term demand and whale accumulation. Bearish factors: USD-denominated BTC peaked in Oct 2025 and, by historical 12–13 month bear cycles, could see continued downside through late 2026; gold’s ~80% rally and ~$7.8B outflows from spot BTC ETFs signal capital rotation away from bitcoin into safe-haven assets amid heightened geopolitical risk. For traders: short-term volatility may be high around geopolitical events and ETF flow reports; mean reversion trades based on the BTC/gold ratio could be profitable if the ratio rebounds. In the short term, expect choppy price action and potential further downside in USD terms; in the medium-to-long term, institutional accumulation and any reversal of ETF outflows could restore momentum. Recommended tactics: use dollar-cost averaging to build exposure, watch ETF flows and gold price action, and size positions defensively until a clear USD breakout or macro stabilization occurs. Historical parallels: previous cycles saw BTC find local bottoms amid fear and ETF outflows before recovery as institutional demand returned (e.g., post-2018 accumulation phase and post-2022 macro normalization).