Bitcoin Falls Below 0.75 Supply Cost-Basis Quantile — Signals Deeper Correction
Bitcoin (BTC) has slipped below the 0.75 supply cost-basis quantile (around $95,000) and has not reclaimed that level after a >4% correction this week that erased prior gains. Glassnode’s supply quantiles model shows the 0.75 line represents the cost basis for 75% of circulating BTC; trading below it means more than 25% of supply is underwater. Historically, a breach of the 0.75 quantile signals a deep correction and increased distribution pressure, though past instances (notably 2023) have sometimes marked cycle bottoms before sustained rallies. To retake the 0.75 quantile BTC needs a roughly 6.2% rise from current prices. Analysts warn macro uncertainty and weak market conditions could keep pressure on price; reclaiming the quantile would ease bearish sentiment. This development increases short-term downside risk for traders while offering a possible accumulation signal if on-chain support holds.
Bearish
Falling below the 0.75 supply cost-basis quantile is a widely recognized on-chain bearish signal: it shows a meaningful portion of holders (over 25%) are underwater, increasing the probability of capitulation and distribution. Historically, breaches of this level coincide with deep corrections and heightened volatility. Short-term, expect increased selling pressure and greater downside risk as weaker hands may liquidate positions; traders should watch for elevated volume on declines and potential stop-run behavior. Medium-to-long-term implications are mixed: while the metric can mark local bottoms (as in 2023 before the 2024–2025 rally), reclamation of the 0.75 quantile is typically required to restore bullish conviction. Key levels and indicators to monitor: ability of BTC to recapture the ~0.75 quantile (~+6.2% from current), changes in exchange netflow, realized losses among on-chain cohorts, and macro catalysts (rates, risk appetite). Risk management: traders should reduce size or hedge until BTC shows sustained recovery above the quantile or confirmed support patterns; contrarian accumulation could be considered only with clear on-chain stabilization and bullish volume confirmation.