Bitcoin Falls Below 365-Day MA, CryptoQuant Warns Bear Market
Bitcoin is undergoing its deepest correction in the current bull cycle, dropping over 35% from its October all-time high to below $81,000 before recovering to $87,000. CryptoQuant’s latest weekly report highlights that BTC has fallen beneath its 365-day moving average of $102,000—a first in this cycle—and broken key support at $90,000–$92,000. Historically, the 365-day MA has been the final line of defense, and its breach in 2022 marked the start of a prolonged bear market. The report’s Bull Score Index has plunged to 20/100, signaling extreme bearish sentiment.
Institutional demand, which previously cushioned corrections, has evaporated. Spot Bitcoin ETF holdings are growing at their slowest annual pace since launch, and Bitcoin Treasury firms have slashed purchases from 171,000 BTC to just 9,600 BTC year-on-year. With limited buying pressure, CryptoQuant warns the bear market may already be underway. A significant catalyst—such as renewed ETF inflows or macroeconomic shifts—will be required to prompt another rally.
Bearish
CryptoQuant’s breach of Bitcoin’s 365-day moving average—historically the bull cycle’s last support—and a Bull Score Index of 20/100 underscore extreme bearish conditions. The 35% drawdown and broken $90k support echo early signals of the 2022 bear market. Moreover, institutional demand has stalled: spot ETF inflows are at their slowest annual pace, and Bitcoin Treasury firms have slashed purchases by over 90% year-on-year. Without sustained institutional buying or a fresh macro catalyst, downward pressure is likely to persist short term. Long term, a significant event—such as renewed ETF appetite, regulatory clarity, or geopolitical shifts—would be required to reverse sentiment and trigger a new rally.