Grayscale: Bitcoin Could Hit New ATH in 2026 as Institutional Flows Replace Parabolic Retail Rallies
Grayscale Research says Bitcoin (BTC) could reach a new all‑time high in 2026, challenging the traditional halving‑driven four‑year cycle thesis. The firm argues the recent ~32% drawdown from November peak is a normal mid‑bull correction and not indicative of a trend reversal. Grayscale cites three drivers supporting further upside into 2026: (1) this cycle has lacked the parabolic retail‑led price phase seen in prior cycles; (2) structural change as spot ETFs and corporate crypto treasuries bring steady institutional inflows beyond retail exchange deposits; and (3) supportive macro conditions, notably the prospect of U.S. rate cuts and progress on bipartisan crypto legislation. The report also notes divergence between on‑chain fundamentals and price action. A later perspective in the coverage echoes Grayscale and adds that some market participants (eg, Tom Lee/BitMine) expect a new BTC high by early 2026 while highlighting concurrent large ETH accumulation by some firms. Traders should weigh renewed institutional demand and macro tailwinds against typical bull‑market volatility when sizing positions and setting risk parameters.
Bullish
The report’s core thesis is bullish for BTC price. Grayscale argues the 32% drawdown is a normal bull‑market correction rather than a cycle top, and it identifies persistent, structural demand sources—spot ETFs and corporate treasuries—that are likely to provide steady buy pressure versus past retail‑led parabolic moves. Potential macro tailwinds (lower U.S. rates, bipartisan regulatory progress) would further reduce opportunity cost for holding BTC and encourage institutional allocations. Short‑term impact: increased volatility should persist as traders price in flows and regulatory news; corrections like the recent one may offer tactical accumulation points. Medium‑ to long‑term impact: if institutional flows scale as expected, supply‑demand dynamics could support further upside into 2026 and make rallies less reliant on speculative parabolic spikes. Risks that could negate this bullish view include slower than expected ETF/corporate adoption, adverse regulatory outcomes, or a macro shock that tightens liquidity—events that would produce bearish price pressure. Overall, the balance of evidence in the report and subsequent commentary points to a bullish outlook for BTC, though with typical bull‑market volatility.