Bitcoin stalls under $94K as demand lags; recovery needs fresh inflows

Published: 2025-12-14 21:17:15 |

Bitcoin has repeatedly failed to break above the $94,000 short-term resistance over the past two weeks, falling back toward the $89,000–$90,000 range after tests. On-chain metrics point to weak demand: the apparent demand metric has been negative since late November, and realized P/L for coins held 1–3 months shows steady losses, with recent levels at their weakest since July 2022 after a drop to $84,000. Some longer-term signals are mildly constructive — global M2 money supply hit record highs and realized-cap impulse sits at multi-month support — but these have not translated into the sizeable capital inflows needed to push BTC above $100,000. Traders should note that persistent selling from miners and short-term holders is pressuring price, and a clear recovery requires renewed demand and meaningful inflows. Key keywords: Bitcoin, BTC price, on-chain demand, realized P/L, liquidity, capital inflows.

Bearish

The article documents repeated failure to clear the $94K resistance and sustained negative on-chain demand indicators, including negative apparent demand and deteriorating realized P/L for 1–3 month holders. These signals point to ongoing selling pressure from newly mined coins and short-term holders, causing price to revert to the $89K–$90K area after tests. While macro liquidity (rising global M2) and realized-cap impulse at multi-month support are mildly bullish longer-term signals, they haven’t led to capital inflows. Historically, similar patterns — failed resistance tests combined with negative realized P/L and lack of inflows (e.g., mid-2022 bear phases) — preceded extended consolidation or further downside until accumulation and inflows returned. Short-term implication: higher probability of continued range-bound to downward pressure absent catalytic buy-side flows. Long-term implication: recovery remains possible but contingent on renewed institutional or retail inflows; otherwise, consolidation may persist and volatility could increase around key supports.