Bitcoin Price Analysis: BTC Tests $60K as Downtrend Risks $50K
Bitcoin price analysis shows BTC entering a fragile phase after a sharp retracement from late-2025 highs, with price action testing the lower boundary of a recent consolidation. On the daily chart, Bitcoin is below the 100-day (~$80K) and 200-day (~$90K) moving averages and remains inside a wide descending channel, keeping the medium-term bias bearish.
Traders are watching the $60K demand zone, which aligns with prior liquidity and buying interest. The RSI has rebounded from oversold levels but is now slipping again after rejection near the $75K resistance area. If sellers keep momentum, Bitcoin price analysis expects another push lower and a renewed test of $60K; a failure there could open the door toward the $50K support cluster.
On the 4-hour chart, BTC forms an ascending channel that looks more like a bearish flag. A failed breakout above the $75K area preceded a steep decline toward the channel’s lower boundary, which is at risk of breakdown. With the RSI already near oversold, buyers may struggle in the near term if the channel breaks.
On-chain data adds context: the LTH-SOPR/STH-SOPR ratio has fallen below 1, resembling the late-2023 accumulation/bottom phase. This often reflects capitulation from weaker hands while stronger investors accumulate within the range—but the signal still needs confirmation by stabilization and improving price action.
Key levels: $75K (resistance), $60K (critical demand), and $50K (next support zone).
Bearish
The article is bearish on near-term direction because it highlights BTC trading below key long-term moving averages and inside a descending channel, with price now pressing the critical $60K demand zone. A breakdown of the 4-hour bearish-flag-like channel would likely accelerate selling toward the $50K support cluster. However, it is not “all-clear bullish” because it also notes an on-chain capitulation-style signal (LTH-SOPR/STH-SOPR < 1) that historically aligns with accumulation phases (e.g., late-2023). That means a bottom attempt is plausible, but traders should expect volatility until price stabilizes and reclaims overhead resistance ($75K).
Short-term (days): watch for rejection at/under $60K or channel breakdown—both typically worsen momentum and trigger stop-loss cascades. Long-term (weeks+): if the LTH/SOPR depression persists while price bases above $60K, it could set up a later rebound; if it fails to hold, the “accumulation” narrative may be delayed and bearish follow-through can dominate.