Bitcoin Bull-Bear Cycle Indicator turns green after 2023 low
Cryptoquant reports the Bitcoin Bull-Bear Cycle Indicator turned green on May 12, 2026 for the first time since March 2023. The signal flips green when Cryptoquant’s Profit & Loss (P&L) Index rises above its 365-day moving average, using on-chain inputs such as MVRV, NUPL, and LTH/STH SOPR. Historically, the Bitcoin Bull-Bear Cycle Indicator’s green phases have preceded sustained rallies.
The prior confirmed green run began in March 2023 and stayed in place until August 2024, during which bitcoin rose from around $20,000 to an all-time high above $73,000. The key caution: in March 2022 the same Bitcoin Bull-Bear Cycle Indicator flashed green but the move failed, with bitcoin eventually bottoming during the FTX collapse in November 2022.
This time, several supportive metrics are stacking up alongside the green flip: April spot Bitcoin ETF inflows hit $2.44B (strongest since Oct 2025), whale wallets holding 1,000+ BTC grew by 142 addresses over six months, and Glassnode’s RHODL ratio is at 4.5—among the highest readings in bitcoin history, previously seen near major cycle bottoms (2015 and 2022). After a February 2026 low (lowest since the FTX bottom) following bitcoin’s pullback from an Oct 2025 peak near $126,000, price has stabilized around the $80,000 area.
Outlook for 2026 remains split: Standard Chartered and Bernstein target ~$150,000 by year-end, while Fidelity’s Jurrien Timmer argues the Oct 2025 peak may be the cycle top and 2026 could be consolidation rather than a straight continuation.
Bullish
The Bitcoin Bull-Bear Cycle Indicator flipping green is a classic trend-recovery trigger, suggesting conditions that historically precede sustained BTC rallies. This aligns with multiple corroborating on-chain/institutional signals: strong April spot Bitcoin ETF inflows ($2.44B), rising 1,000+ BTC whale address counts, and a high RHODL ratio pointing to long-term holder behavior. For traders, that combination often improves the probability of trend continuation after consolidation.
However, the article highlights a major precedent risk: the same Bitcoin Bull-Bear Cycle Indicator produced a false green in March 2022 before a sharp rejection and a later bottom during the FTX collapse. So, this news is bullish but not a guarantee. Short-term, traders may see momentum follow-through toward the high-$80k/near-$100k zones if ETF inflows stay positive and whales keep accumulating. Long-term, if the indicator remains green beyond a few weeks/months (unlike the 2022 failure), it would strengthen the case for a new bull leg into late-2026; if it flips back to red quickly, it would signal a premature cycle call and likely increase downside volatility.