Bitcoin Risks Bull-Market Breakdown Below $75,500
Bitcoin must hold above $75,500 to preserve its recovery structure, according to Jesse Marre, senior portfolio manager at Hilbert Group. The level is the key support threshold after Bitcoin fell for five straight days, lost 5.4% over the week and briefly traded below $80,000. Near-term support sits at $78,500–$79,500. A sustained break below $75,500 could send Bitcoin back towards previous range lows. On the upside, reclaiming $81,400 would restore its near-term consolidation range. Moves above $85,000 and $87,500 could open a path towards $95,000–$98,000.
US spot Bitcoin ETFs still recorded about $442 million in weekly net inflows, despite $635 million in withdrawals on Thursday. Options pricing showed greater demand for downside protection: five-delta puts had 44% implied volatility, compared with 38% for calls. Hilbert also reported constrained liquidity, while elevated oil prices, technology-stock losses and uncertainty ahead of the Federal Reserve’s October 28 decision weighed on risk appetite. The analyst expects rates to remain unchanged, but anticipates a hawkish message. For Bitcoin traders, the $75,500 support level, ETF flows and Fed guidance are key signals to watch.
Bearish
The near-term risk balance is bearish because Bitcoin has posted five consecutive daily losses, slipped below $80,000 and is testing support amid weakening liquidity and broader risk aversion. The analyst’s $75,500 level is a clear technical line: a sustained break could invalidate the recovery from the summer lows and prompt traders to target earlier range lows. Put options carrying higher implied volatility than calls also indicate demand for downside hedges.
There are counterweights. US spot Bitcoin ETFs remained net inflows-positive for the week, and the analyst’s upside levels provide a recovery path if Bitcoin reclaims $81,400 and then clears $85,000–$87,500. But the $635 million Thursday ETF outflow shows how quickly flows can reverse during a selloff. Similar risk-off episodes, when equities weaken and macro concerns drive volatility, have often increased Bitcoin’s correlation with other risk assets and amplified short-term moves. A hawkish Federal Reserve message, elevated oil prices or further deterioration in liquidity could add pressure; a less hawkish outcome and renewed ETF inflows could support a rebound.
In the short term, traders may watch the $78,500–$79,500 zone and $75,500 for potential breakdown signals, while volatility and stop-loss activity may rise around the Fed decision. Longer term, the market structure remains conditional rather than decisively bearish: holding $75,500 would preserve the recovery thesis, while losing it could shift sentiment towards a broader range reset. This is an analyst’s market view, not a confirmed price outcome.