Bitcoin’s Next Bull Run May Take 200–300 Days to Start, Analysts Warn
Analysts warn Bitcoin may not begin a sustained bullish wave for another 200–300 days after indicators show waning momentum. Axel Adler Jr. highlighted on X that Bitcoin’s monthly RSI has cooled from overheated levels to around 60% since March 2024; historically, similar RSI declines preceded a 200–300 day delay before the next major rally, suggesting a potential bottom between June and October 2026. On-chain analyst Joao Wedson (Alphractal) notes large holders (whales) are reducing longs or adding shorts relative to retail, a behavior that typically leads to sideways price action and could push BTC toward $80,000 before accumulation resumes. BTC was trading near $90,979 at publication, up ~7% week-over-week but showing slowing momentum. Key implications for traders: lower short-term conviction from whales and a cooling RSI point to elevated risk of prolonged correction or consolidation; traders should watch monthly RSI, whale position changes, and support at $80k for signals of accumulation or renewed bullish momentum.
Bearish
The article highlights two primary technical/on-chain signals that point to limited near-term upside and elevated downside or sideways risk. First, the monthly RSI has cooled significantly from overheated levels to ~60% — historically similar RSI drops were followed by a 200–300 day lag before a renewed bullish wave. That pattern implies Bitcoin may remain in consolidation or corrective ranges for many months, delaying a major rally. Second, whale behavior (reducing longs or increasing shorts) indicates lower conviction among large holders; when whales de-risk, liquidity and buying pressure can dry up, encouraging sideways to downward price movement and potential re-tests of lower support (noted at $80,000). Short-term impact: increased volatility with a bias toward consolidation or drawdowns as momentum indicators remain weak and whales trim positions — trading ranges may widen and breakouts are less reliable. Long-term impact: if historical patterns hold, a protracted consolidation followed by renewed accumulation could set up a stronger eventual bull phase, but timing is uncertain (potential bottom June–Oct 2026 per the RSI-based comparison). Traders should monitor monthly RSI, whale net position metrics, funding rates, and support at $80k; risk management (position sizing, stop-losses) is prudent given the elevated risk of a prolonged correction or protracted sideways market. Comparable past events: post-RSI cool-offs in prior cycles preceded extended consolidation before larger rallies, and periods when whales reduced exposure often preceded sideways markets rather than immediate rebounds.