Bitcoin Bull Run Faces Turn on Trump’s Fed Chair Pick
Analyst Alex Krüger argues that Bitcoin bull run’s next leg will hinge on who President Trump nominates as Fed chair. In an August 18 note, Krüger said markets have not priced in the potential dovish turn that a new chair could bring. He dismissed the four-year halving cycle theory, pointing instead to the Fed’s ultra-hawkish pivot in January 2022 as the true catalyst for the previous cycle’s end.
The Fed chair term expires on May 15, 2026. Candidates such as Kevin Warsh and Kevin Hassett are under consideration. A dovish nominee could extend the cycle by boosting liquidity expectations. Conversely, a hawkish pick may drain the liquidity impulse that supported post-ETF Bitcoin gains.
Near-term catalysts include Powell’s Jackson Hole speech, PCE, NFP, CPI, and PPI data ahead of the September FOMC. Technically, Bitcoin has corrected from recent highs. Support zones lie at $112,000 and $100,000, with resistance at $122,000–$124,000. Derivatives metrics show suppressed volatility and reduced open interest, indicating cautious leverage.
Krüger concludes that a major trigger—likely a Fed chair nomination—will decide if the Bitcoin bull run continues.
Bullish
Analyst Alex Krüger’s thesis centers on the idea that a dovish Fed chair nomination could revive liquidity and extend the Bitcoin bull run. Historically, shifts toward looser monetary policy—such as the post-2020 Fed dovish pivot—have coincided with major rallies in risk assets, including Bitcoin. In the short term, markets will likely price in expectations for a dovish nominee ahead of Jackson Hole and key economic releases. Over the long term, a confirmed dovish stance from the Fed chair could sustain low rates and encourage further institutional crypto allocation. While a hawkish pick would pose downside risk, current sentiment and derivatives data point to bullish positioning until the nomination decision.